Monday, May 5, 2008
How good is your game (theory)?
The game theory is a that first created by John von Neuman and Oskar Morgenstern in the 1940s' but made famous by John Nash (watch "A Beautiful Mind", based on John Nash) in the 1950s' as the basis of creation for the modern field of Game Theory. The theory, through the use of deep mathematics and interactive models, tries to predict outcomes in complex circumstance and situations. Some applications of this theory can be seen in preparing business negotiations, analyzing future market conditions, strategic decision making, and assessing the viability of a new venture, business model, program, project, product, service or technology. But the hang up with the theory is that assumptions need to be made. In other words, a guess with a university education. The assumptions have to be made to simplify the real world because it is too complext for the theory to work propertly and with any type of precision. So if it
Saturday, April 19, 2008
1 hat, 2 hat; green hat, blue hat --- Dr. Suess
If you're like me, sometimes its just better to wear a hat than to hassle with your hair in the mornings. And its a pretty easy decision: bad hair and/or lazy = hat day. But when it comes to making a decision there is more than one hat to be worn and actually there is 6 and each has a color. And honestly this is my favorite theory and I try to incorporate this into my own daily decisions. Oh and for those curious http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_07.htm
this is the website. But instead of going through each hat, I'll let you read the article and comment on what you think. In the four years attending UMSL, I have lost count the number of projects I'm had been assigned and apart of that a decision had to be made where this theory came into play without anyone realizing it. And for those out you who took 4850 or will know what I'm talking about. But also for anyone that is apart of a company or student organization and in a decision making capacity. This theory, if followed can help those "stuck" in a one hat minded strategy to look past or try a new way of thinking, planning, or strategizing. As having been in a leadership position recently, thinking outside the box or is different degrees is vital to making decisions and keeping the company, organization, or group of people on track. But also to have different people specializing in wearing one hat each can also be helpful as then the leader can wear the blue hat (if you read the article you'll know what I'm talking about) and it then will give an organization/company exec board a number of people bringing their own degree of expertise to make a solution or decision. I look forward to your comments.
this is the website. But instead of going through each hat, I'll let you read the article and comment on what you think. In the four years attending UMSL, I have lost count the number of projects I'm had been assigned and apart of that a decision had to be made where this theory came into play without anyone realizing it. And for those out you who took 4850 or will know what I'm talking about. But also for anyone that is apart of a company or student organization and in a decision making capacity. This theory, if followed can help those "stuck" in a one hat minded strategy to look past or try a new way of thinking, planning, or strategizing. As having been in a leadership position recently, thinking outside the box or is different degrees is vital to making decisions and keeping the company, organization, or group of people on track. But also to have different people specializing in wearing one hat each can also be helpful as then the leader can wear the blue hat (if you read the article you'll know what I'm talking about) and it then will give an organization/company exec board a number of people bringing their own degree of expertise to make a solution or decision. I look forward to your comments.
May the force (field analysis) be with you
Yea you guessed it, I am a Star Wars fan. And I'd like to talk to you about it some more but we have more important issues pressing like discussing what force field analysis is and how it has no relation to Star Wars.
OK, so force field analysis is used for looking at all the forces for and against a decision, so says
http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm. Basically it helps enforce the forces supporting your decision and reduce the impact of oppositional forces (ie people, time constraints, lack of supplies, etc). So here we go again with another graph and possible conflict in deciding how much each force is worth to you (that seems to be a commonality lately don't you think).
Like many of the same past examples, you have a decision to make and in the example on the website, your deciding to upgrade a factory with spanky new manufacturing equipment. You judge what forces support your decision and give them a score of 1-5 and what forces oppose your decision. Going with the example, one "negative" force is the fear of the staff of the new technology with a score of 3. Now how did the decision maker come to think that score was appropriate? Did he/she take a general survey of the staff or just guess that 3 was a good guess. Also with the purchase of new equipment one has to consider the salvage cost of the equipment after it's life cycle is complete which would impact the cost, hopefully lowering the score some. So when making a large decision that is impacted by different forces with one being the time and efforts of employees and people, how do you go about determining how much of a score is warranted. And remember that when making such a large scale and impacting decision, how will it change the employees' way of life, from simple adjustment due to new tech to if layoffs need to occur. Just a thought.
OK, so force field analysis is used for looking at all the forces for and against a decision, so says
http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm. Basically it helps enforce the forces supporting your decision and reduce the impact of oppositional forces (ie people, time constraints, lack of supplies, etc). So here we go again with another graph and possible conflict in deciding how much each force is worth to you (that seems to be a commonality lately don't you think).
Like many of the same past examples, you have a decision to make and in the example on the website, your deciding to upgrade a factory with spanky new manufacturing equipment. You judge what forces support your decision and give them a score of 1-5 and what forces oppose your decision. Going with the example, one "negative" force is the fear of the staff of the new technology with a score of 3. Now how did the decision maker come to think that score was appropriate? Did he/she take a general survey of the staff or just guess that 3 was a good guess. Also with the purchase of new equipment one has to consider the salvage cost of the equipment after it's life cycle is complete which would impact the cost, hopefully lowering the score some. So when making a large decision that is impacted by different forces with one being the time and efforts of employees and people, how do you go about determining how much of a score is warranted. And remember that when making such a large scale and impacting decision, how will it change the employees' way of life, from simple adjustment due to new tech to if layoffs need to occur. Just a thought.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Pros, Cons, and PMI
I'm still at it folks. And we have coffee up so come and join me. Here's a topic some of us might be familiar with because its been used for awhile.....a few hundred years awhile. What PMI stands for is "Plus/Minus/Interesting". Kinda simple right. Oh and it gets better. Much like a prior theory, you'll be making another table/graph. Go to http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_05.htm
if you need help in doing this. This might actually be one, if not, the simplest decision making theory out there. So you want to make a decision you make out this graph and right down each positive, negative, and interesting (PMI) fact of a decision and get each a score. You add up the score and which ever totals out more, thats your decision. Wow and life just got easier, maybe. I know what your thinking, 'Andy, didn't we just do this one a few theories ago?'. Well yea kind of but it is different even though it does still work off the same premise. You just need to now decide how much each positive/negative/interesting point is worth. The model was based on a 1 to 5 scale but you might need to expand it to a 1 to 10 perhaps. So try it at home and get back to me if it works. I know I'm going to try it.
if you need help in doing this. This might actually be one, if not, the simplest decision making theory out there. So you want to make a decision you make out this graph and right down each positive, negative, and interesting (PMI) fact of a decision and get each a score. You add up the score and which ever totals out more, thats your decision. Wow and life just got easier, maybe. I know what your thinking, 'Andy, didn't we just do this one a few theories ago?'. Well yea kind of but it is different even though it does still work off the same premise. You just need to now decide how much each positive/negative/interesting point is worth. The model was based on a 1 to 5 scale but you might need to expand it to a 1 to 10 perhaps. So try it at home and get back to me if it works. I know I'm going to try it.
How deep does your Decision Tree (Analysis) go?
Whats going on everybody? So I don't know if anyone else is counting but it 4 weeks left (est. 28 days) till the semester is over and I'm graduated. Don't know about anyone else but I'm excited. Anyways on to this all important blog thing. So the $64,000 question is how deep is your decision tree? For those who have no idea what I'm talking about http://www.mindtools.com/dectree.html
should be about to help you out. The basis of the theory is to help you choose between several different action opportunities. By dong this you can see the risks, rewards, and outcomes of each decision. Sounds pretty cool, uh? Well I'll spare you the article because I'm sure you'll read it but I will pose a issue. If you have several options, and each option has several risks, rewards, and options, you might be at it all day. But it could also make a good topic for a small company meeting when a decision needs to be made. More minds at a problem might find different solutions and options to solving/making a decision. But it could also be used on a personal level I believe. Like buy a car which is what I'm going through right now. Now I can buy a car which will allow me to get to new places, around town, and no longer depend on the MetroLink and public transportation, allowing me to get a job (potentially better paying, hope so) away from the Metro. But on the other hand, not getting a car could save me money but limit my traveling to where I can get on and off a bus or train. I could make a easy decision tree for all this but again I'll spare the reader. So go out and make a decision tree for yourself and see how deep it really goes. Cheers
should be about to help you out. The basis of the theory is to help you choose between several different action opportunities. By dong this you can see the risks, rewards, and outcomes of each decision. Sounds pretty cool, uh? Well I'll spare you the article because I'm sure you'll read it but I will pose a issue. If you have several options, and each option has several risks, rewards, and options, you might be at it all day. But it could also make a good topic for a small company meeting when a decision needs to be made. More minds at a problem might find different solutions and options to solving/making a decision. But it could also be used on a personal level I believe. Like buy a car which is what I'm going through right now. Now I can buy a car which will allow me to get to new places, around town, and no longer depend on the MetroLink and public transportation, allowing me to get a job (potentially better paying, hope so) away from the Metro. But on the other hand, not getting a car could save me money but limit my traveling to where I can get on and off a bus or train. I could make a easy decision tree for all this but again I'll spare the reader. So go out and make a decision tree for yourself and see how deep it really goes. Cheers
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Grid Analysis
Hi again folks, I'm back again. I got coffee brewing up in the MIS lab so if your still awake and have nothing better to do, come join me. I have nothing better to do than blog. But enough of this shanidegans, lets get into this shall we. According to http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_03.htm
Grid analysis can also be know as Decision Matrix, Pugh Matrix or MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) if those ring a bell for anyone reading this. What it does is help you decide between several options. So keeping that in mind, lets set up a scenario and play a little game. Come with me to see how deep the rabbit hole really is. Wow I really need sleep. Say you want to go on vacation after you graduate UMSL (finally). You have saved up $1500 for a week stay someplace at you need help deciding where. You have narrowed it down to Las Vegas, Orlando, Hawaii, New York, Las Angeles, or a very nice stay in the St. Louis area (Ozarks included). Well you make up a grid and list the cities on the left and criteria you wish to consider up top, like price, weather, fun, places you want to see, etc. You give each city and criteria a score and weight and then total it up and the city with the highest score is your new vacation spot. I'm sure you all looked at the site and have seen the example grid. But thats about it. Of course each score is up to you and if your still unhappy with your decision, as the article suggests, giving a higher wieght to a criteria will sway your decision. Only this about this that I have a problem with is that if you don't have a definite score/wieght for each criteria, then you might spend more time deciding what each score/weight needs to go where.
Grid analysis can also be know as Decision Matrix, Pugh Matrix or MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) if those ring a bell for anyone reading this. What it does is help you decide between several options. So keeping that in mind, lets set up a scenario and play a little game. Come with me to see how deep the rabbit hole really is. Wow I really need sleep. Say you want to go on vacation after you graduate UMSL (finally). You have saved up $1500 for a week stay someplace at you need help deciding where. You have narrowed it down to Las Vegas, Orlando, Hawaii, New York, Las Angeles, or a very nice stay in the St. Louis area (Ozarks included). Well you make up a grid and list the cities on the left and criteria you wish to consider up top, like price, weather, fun, places you want to see, etc. You give each city and criteria a score and weight and then total it up and the city with the highest score is your new vacation spot. I'm sure you all looked at the site and have seen the example grid. But thats about it. Of course each score is up to you and if your still unhappy with your decision, as the article suggests, giving a higher wieght to a criteria will sway your decision. Only this about this that I have a problem with is that if you don't have a definite score/wieght for each criteria, then you might spend more time deciding what each score/weight needs to go where.
Paired Comparison Analysis
Here's another one folks for those of you who are checking blogs at 11:35 pm on a Sunday. So the paired comparison analysis "helps you to work out the importance of a number of options relative to each other." http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_02.htm
This can be very useful when objective data is not in great supply. So the best way to use it is in comparison of two things, or as the article put it, "apples with oranges". This is actually ironic because I just quit a job (for reasons I with holding) that we sold one cable/internet product and compared it against another. The firm went through price, capabilities, client support, the whole 9 yards of it. But it can also be used, of course, on a much higher decison making business level. Like when it would be better to invest more into a new advertising campaign, a piece of machinery, or whatever. But the catch is, like I stated earlier, you have no objective data. So when your priorities are a little, let's say, foggy, or are comparable in importance, paired comparison analysis is a way to help you make a decision. But you can be the judge of that.
This can be very useful when objective data is not in great supply. So the best way to use it is in comparison of two things, or as the article put it, "apples with oranges". This is actually ironic because I just quit a job (for reasons I with holding) that we sold one cable/internet product and compared it against another. The firm went through price, capabilities, client support, the whole 9 yards of it. But it can also be used, of course, on a much higher decison making business level. Like when it would be better to invest more into a new advertising campaign, a piece of machinery, or whatever. But the catch is, like I stated earlier, you have no objective data. So when your priorities are a little, let's say, foggy, or are comparable in importance, paired comparison analysis is a way to help you make a decision. But you can be the judge of that.
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